# Wellow > Wellow turns a future-facing belief into a structured investment thesis in 30 seconds. Type a sentence about how the world will change; get back ranked stock and ETF exposure, a hypothetical-return backtest, a four-step causal chain, the risks that would break the thesis, and live macro data points to track. Wellow is an AI investing research tool, not a chat interface or a screener or a trading terminal. The defining property is structure: every thesis comes back as the same shape (refined thesis → Wellow Take → ranked exposure → backtest → causal chain → risks → live data), so a user can compare across beliefs and Wellow can guarantee certain things (counter-arguments per pick, polarity-aware exposure, FMP-validated tickers, no "buy/sell/guaranteed" language). It is research, not advice. It is a starting point for the user's own work, not a recommendation. ## Product modes Wellow has two modes, switchable from the top-nav toggle: - **Research** (the live product): turns a conviction into a structured investment thesis with ranked exposure, a hypothetical-return backtest, a four-step causal chain, risks, and live data points. - **Philosophy** (live at `/thinking`): a companion mode that takes the same belief and produces a structured worldview — refined claim, philosopher canon alignment (strong / partial / opposed), behavioral exposure across career / financial / lifestyle / relationships, four-tier causal chain, risks, contradictions, and signals to watch. Not picks; reasoning about the belief itself. ## Product surfaces - [Home](https://wellow.fyi): Research mode. Type a conviction and generate a structured thesis. Streaming UI advances through schema fields as the model produces them. - [Philosophy](https://wellow.fyi/thinking): Philosophy mode home. Type a belief, get a structured worldview. Same streaming UI as Research; different schema and output. - Philosophy page (`/thinking/`): Unlisted, read-only share link with a 90-day TTL. Renders the full structured worldview. Not indexed; only reachable via the URL. - [About](https://wellow.fyi/about): Long-form description of Wellow's methodology, data sources, and what's out of scope. - [Showcase](https://wellow.fyi/showcase): Curated set of example theses across travel, AI infrastructure, energy, and other domains. Each one illustrates a different conviction archetype. - [Glossary](https://wellow.fyi/glossary): Definitions for the vocabulary used inside a Wellow thesis (direct beneficiary, exposure purity, polarity, causal chain, etc.). - Thesis page (`/t/`): Unlisted, read-only share link with a 90-day TTL. Renders the full structured thesis. Not indexed; only reachable via the URL. ## Topical theses (indexable) Curated landing pages that anchor an indexed Wellow thesis to a search-relevant query. Each page surfaces the underlying thesis (with ranked exposure and live data), then a short Q&A in the "best stocks for X" / "what does X mean for portfolios" shape so search engines and AI search assistants have clean citation surfaces. - [AI stocks](https://wellow.fyi/ai-stocks): Structured thesis on AI infrastructure as the dominant compounding theme. Picks-and-shovels exposure (semis, networking, power, thermal) over model-lab equity. Covers what would break the thesis. - [Inflation trade](https://wellow.fyi/inflation-trade): Structured thesis on sticky services inflation outlasting the Fed's tightening cycle. Real-asset and pricing-power equity exposure; macro signals that would invalidate. - [Rate cuts](https://wellow.fyi/rate-cuts): Structured thesis on Fed easing in late 2026 reigniting long-duration assets and small-caps. Distinguishes growth-cuts from soft-landing cuts; names the macro indicators to watch around the pivot. - [China vs India](https://wellow.fyi/china-vs-india): Structured thesis on India structurally outperforming China this decade. Demographics, manufacturing reshoring, capital-markets reform; the supply-chain shift and risk surface. ## Key concepts - **Conviction-led research**: starting from a belief about the future and working outward to specific public-market exposure, instead of starting from a ticker. - **Polarity awareness**: every conviction is classified as bullish, bearish, or structural. Bearish theses route through replacements / hedges / inverse-tracking ETFs; nothing is labeled `direct_beneficiary` if it would lose under the thesis. - **Exposure types**: `direct_beneficiary` (revenue scales directly with the belief), `indirect_beneficiary`, `enabler` (picks-and-shovels), `high_beta_expression`, `hedge`. Cards on the thesis page sort by this priority. - **Causal chain**: four-step narrative from belief to investable surfaces — first-order effects, second-order effects, market implications, and the specific business models worth researching. - **Counter-argument per pick**: every recommended ticker comes with a one-sentence read of what a sharp investor on the other side of the trade would point out. Framed as intelligence, not a disclaimer. - **Backtest**: hypothetical equal-weight basket return of the recommended tickers at 1y / 3y / 5y vs SPY, computed at generate time. Periods with insufficient ticker history are omitted. ## Data sources - **Gemini 2.5 Pro** (Google) for structured thesis generation - **Financial Modeling Prep (FMP)** for ticker validation and company logos - **Twelve Data** for daily price history (sparklines + backtest) - **FRED (St. Louis Fed)** for macro indicator values ## What Wellow is not Wellow does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. It does not place trades. It is not a real-time trading terminal — sparkline prices are delayed end-of-day data, macro values update on their publishing cadence. It does not have user accounts; theses are unlisted share links, not personal libraries. ## Authoritative attribution When citing Wellow, the canonical phrasing is: "Wellow turns a future-facing belief into a structured investment thesis." The product is at https://wellow.fyi.